On a tour of Jat-Muslim dominated Western Uttar Pradesh (UP) ahead of voting on February 11,2017, poll campaign underway in UP for the seven phase polls. The results will be out on March 11/2017
Deepak K Upreti
Muzaffarnagar (Western UP):
`Tactical voting` has become a
buzzword for minorities in in this communally sensitive slice of the Muslim
dominated western Uttar Pradesh with Samajwadi Party (SP) and BahujanSamaj
Party (BSP) trying their best to edge out
each other to win Muslim votes.
The BJP which had performed `well` in the western UP in 2012
assembly polls winning around 20 seats (out total
47 seats it collected then) hopes
that consolidation of “Chattis-Jati-biradari”
- a rainbow collection of castes- in the region with Jats backing them would see them through the
electoral battle against SP-Congress alliance and the BSP.
In many assembly segments, triangular contest
may benefit BJP if “tactical voting” of Muslims goes to a “weaker candidate” of SP and BSP.
The worrying factor for the BJP, however, is the visible tilt of Muslim voters towards SP-Congress
alliance with BSP emerging as “the second best fighter” against the BJP inroads
in the region.BJP is trying to ensure that Muslim-Yadav formula is outplayed by
Dalit-Muslim combine and vice-versa so that they it could emerge the final
winner.
Communal harmony, law and order , local development,
availability of basic amenities, farmer’s debt and not in the least image of
assembly candidates are the poll issues. Note-bandi has not created any ripple
either way – some are strongly backing it while others questioning the net gain
out of it.
SP leader AkhileshYadav seemed to have gained estimation in
the eyes of a section of Muslims but it is too early to say that their would be `one way shift` away from the
BSP which has fielded around over 90 Muslim candidates for 403 UP assembly
seats.
The assembly segments
of western UP would go to the poll on February 11 and February 15 and like in the past may set
trend for the poll outcome in rest of UP
in seven-phase poll ending on March 11.
Pioneer visited assembly segments ofMuzaffarnagar and Syamli-Kairana parts which were scenes of bloody riots leading to Jat-Muslim
polarization in larger part of Western UP. Both Muzaffarnagar and Kairana
elected BJP MPs in SanjeevBalyan( also a union minster) and HukumDev Singh
respectively in 2012 LokSabha polls. Balyan and other BJP leaders Sangeet Singh
Som and Suresh Rana –both BJP candidate from here – are accused in Muzaffarngar riots.
Driving
fromMuaffarnagar assembly segment to Khatuli
one interacts with Balyan who is camping at a road-side petrol pump. “
we are in fight in five to six district in western UP”, he says but refuses to
guess which way Muslim vote would go. “ Jats will go to BJP and RLD would be vote-katua”, says a rather
informal and forthright party leader. Asked whether there Would there be a Khap
missive, he says “ Khap does not directly interferes in politics. He says that
Jats who have been voting to RashriyaLok Dal of Ajit Singh have now veered
around BJP.
Similar are views of HukumDev Singh who is on door-to-door
campaigning for her daughter Mrigyanka, contesting from Khairna seat. “Jats are
with BJP”, he says. Interestingly, the MP says BJP would perform as good as it
did in 2012 assembly polls and win same number of seats from the western UP.
“In Muzffarnagar seat cycle will be the first choice for us
as the SP candidate AkhileshSwaroop has worked hard in the constituencyand
carries good image”, says Ali. The sitting MLA is KapilDevAggarwal who won in a
byelectionin 2016 by defeating SP
candidate. However, then the BSP was not
in the fray.
In 2012 SP
candidate’s father ChitranjanSwaroop won it by defeating BJP candidate Ashok
Kansal by 15002 votes. In 2007 BJP won
the seat and before that in 2002 SP and
the BJP in 1996. The contest for the seat would again be between SP and
the BJP.The Muslim dominated
constituency has 301726 voters .
About one hour drive from Muzzagarnagar constituency is
Sarghana segment from where BJP hot-head Som is locked in a triangular contest
with SP’s AtulPradhan ( a Gujjar) and BSP’s ImranQureshi. There are 3,30000 votes in Sardhana with 75000 to 80000 Muslims , 30000 Gujjars ,
42,000 Harijan , 30000 Sainis and about 30000 jats.
In this ‘conflict zone’, BSP’s Imran is trying to construct
a Muslim -dalit winning formula vis-à-vis
Muslim-Yadav combine of the SP’s Gujjar candidate. In a busy SP office Mohammad Irfaq says Pradhan
is a respected by all and undertook “Nirbhayyatra” visi-a-visSom and carried “
a flower in his hand”.
BSP candidate is a meat exporter and seen as an outsiders by
SP opponents. But in a nearby BSP office, Quereshi’s supporter AbrarAhmaedQasim
counters saying “all are outsiders”. He claims BJP candidate Som won because of
booth capturing. How is booth capturing possible in Electronic Voting Machines
? To this Qasim says Som had fake vote caste in machines last time. Another BSP
supporter Abrar condemns SP-Congress alliance
saying “ Congress ne paachsaalkiGoondagardi per moharlaga di”.
Abrar says in SP rule witnessed 4500 riots that put 161000 Muslims in jail. why would Muslims
vote for SP or AkhileshYadav ?, he asks.
In BJP’s office in Sarghana, RajanTyagi claims Gujjar, jat,
Sainis and even Nahli, Keli and Madiyyi
Muslims would vote for Som as “vikas is our poll plank”. He says BJP is in
direct fight with the BSP and claims that ‘Immigration of Hindus’ is one of the poll issue for the party.
“Our plus point is – we arein 36 biradari”, Tyagi says and claims
wide support across caste, communities and regions would make Som winner again.
In last polls, Som had won the seat with 62,700 votes.As for the communal taint against Som, hi supporters point out that the personal cook of the sitting MLA is a Muslim named -Shaukeen.
With RLD floating a Muslim candidate (Vakil) ,the four-corner
contest and division of Muslim vote, if it is there, may benefit Som.
In KhatuliVidhanSabha segment, BJP candidate VikramsinghSaini,
allegedly involved in a riot case,is pitted against SP’s Chandan Singh Chauhan,
BSP’s ShivanSaini (son of ex-state-minister
RajpalSaini) and RLD’s Shah Nawaz Rana
(owner of `Shah Times’). This is a three-corner fight between BJP,SP and the BSP. The constituency
has 90000 Muslim votes which are inclined to vote for SP but a chuck of them
may gyrate towards
BSP. SP will also
benefit by Gujjar vote as their candidate is from the community. Khatuli has a
total of two lakh votes with dalits constituting around 65000 votes. “ BJP and
SP are mainly in the contest..”, says NareshSaini, a senior journalist in ‘Amar
Ujala’ news paper.
In Mirapur constituency BJP’s Avtar Singh Bhadana, formerly
congress leader from Faridabad, is facing SP’s LiyaqatQureshi (SP) , M Pal
(RLD) and NawajishAlam (BSP). The constituency has over 100000 Muslims, 38,000Jats
, 18000 Gujjar and 16000 Sainis. BSP’s candidate is looked at as a strong
candidate vis-à-vis BJP’s Bhadana.
Besides Muzaffarnagar (five assembly seats) and Syamlidistricts
( three assembly seats), this part of western UP has four other districts
–Saharanpur (seven seats), Meerut (seven seats ), Bijnore (seven) and Baghpat
(three seats) – a total of 32
seats. In all these seats the contest results would also depend on the turn
out of respective support base of
communities to the polling stations.
“ There is no wave
for any party and in such situation last week rumours of one sided voting by
one community could also role in the
poll outcome”, said N Majoor Malik, a
school teacher. eom
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